Reflection on My Predictions on Cloud Computing for 2011

Last December I made top 5 predictions on cloud computing for 2011. When the year ends soon, it’s time to review them. I won’t rate their accuracy myself because I am indeed biased. You are welcome to do so in the comments though.

“1. The focus of cloud computing will gradually shift from IaaS to PaaS which becomes key differentiator in competition. Developer enablement becomes more important than ever in ecosystem evangelism, full software lifecycle integration, IDE support, API and framework, and etc.”

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Early this year on January 19, 2011, Amazon Web Services introduced AWS Elastic Beanstalk. Per the news release, “Developers simply upload their application, and Elastic Beanstalk automatically handles the deployment details of capacity provisioning, load balancing, auto-scaling, and application health monitoring.”

On April 12, 2011, VMware delivers Cloud Foundry, the industry’s first open PaaS. Then on August 24, it shipped a micro edition of Cloud Foundry which runs within a virtual machine.

“2. Many more mergers and acquisitions (M&As) will take place in cloud space for companies to build stronger cloud portfolio. For big players, it should include dual vertically complete stacks both as services and products. Whoever gets there first will gain enormous advantages over its competitors. “

On April 11, 2011, Verizon acquired Terremark Worldwide, Inc. for $1.4B,  “clearing the way for Verizon to lead the rapidly evolving global managed IT infrastructure and cloud services market.” On SaaS side, SAP spent $3.4B to buy SuccessFactors which is a leading provider of human capital management.

For more deals, check out Top 5 Cloud Acquisitions of 2011 from Redmond Channel Partner.

“3. Virtualization will continue to play a pivotal role in transforming IT infrastructure toward cloud computing. 2011 will see more enterprises 100% virtualized and get onto private cloud journey as a natural next step. Automation will be critical for operational efficiency for both private cloud and cloud service providers. Big enterprises will push for diversification of hypervisors in their cloud datacenters for tier hybrid cloud where different types of workloads run on different platforms. “

According to Magic Quadrant for x86 Server Virtualization Infrastructure by Gartner (Note: the link points to a Citrix site but really Gartner content), “As of mid-2011, at least 40% of x86 architecture workloads have been virtualized on servers; furthermore, the installed base is expected to grow five-fold from 2010 through 2015 (as both the number of workloads in the marketplace grow and as penetration grows to more than 75%).”

While VMware continues to lead, other players like Microsoft and Citrix are also in the same square of Leaders and Visionaries as VMware.

“4. Cloud and mobile computing will cross-empower each other, and therefore generate a new wave of innovations and start-ups. The cloud will be the ultimate powerhouse for mobile devices. And mobile devices will make the cloud more accessible and user friendly. “

On June 6, 2011, Apple introduced iCloud, “a breakthrough set of free new cloud services that work seamlessly with applications on your iPhone®, iPad®, iPod touch®, Mac® or PC to automatically and wirelessly store your content in iCloud and automatically and wirelessly push it to all your devices.”

When Apple is here, I don’t need to name others who mostly watch and follow.

“5. Customers will demand cloud interoperability and portability, and therefore drive more adoption of open source software and open standards. I expect key standard organizations will release important standards on API, security, communication, and so on.”

DMTF released several drafts of specifications like CIMI, CIMI-CIM, etc. These are still work in process and I don’t think any of them be finalized this year. Want to find out more, try here. OpenStack recruited many companies, some of which are VI Java users.

When this review is done, I am ready to make predictions for 2012. Please stay tuned.

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